Monday , January 25 2021

A surprising change changed the rules of the game: Fees for the private sector declined and the dollar rose

This time, the central bank not only had to go out to sell dollars, but released an initial trigger of the currency of nearly $ 1, as the wholesale dollars touched $ 38.60.

The reaction was, as a rule, a target for the central bank, which limited the banks' actions to avoid swollen capital, which caused a strong shot of the wholesale dollar, which reached $ 38.60. Then they understood that they were overreaching that there was too much tension in the air, causing excessive coverage.

But it also serves to take into account a fact: There is a very high sensitivity around the dollar. Any noise scares and what happened at the start of the wheel was evidence of this fear. The peso wearers playing at rates now feel that they are on the ground undermined, although with the quieter moods, the wholesale dollar closed at 11 cents more than Friday at $ 37.97.

In banks and exchange houses, the public paid 17 cents dollars more expensive at $ 39.07. The "blue" was the most in demand because there are already investors seeking cover before key measures. It rose 50 cents to $ 37.75.
The reserves lost DKK 109 million. USD. They remained at USD 66,783 million. Due to the strength of the dollar in gold and gold, $ 188 million and $ 2 million fell to international organizations and $ 3 million to Brazil.

To the banks the measure that was available Guido Sandleris, The president of the central bank fell like a bucket of cold water because they have to return to the monetary unit instead of peso, excess liquidity letters, ie anything that exceeds their equity or fixed maturity.

From April to April, banks will have to return about $ 300 billion from Leliq, and the key will pesos them. These are bills that they paid higher interest rates than the central bank pays when they are claimed. But the balance favors them because from here to April they earn a lot of money.

On the other hand The central government's intention is that the money returning to the banks be converted into lower loans to the private sector. A game that has benefits for economic activity but left behind hanging those who took loans at rates higher than 50% per year.

But there are also risks: Will those who make pesos return to the fixed time or dollarize their portfolio?

The world does not help. Caution continued to dominate the United States and the waterfall effect hits Argentina. US government bonds continued to rise, increasing the Argentinian country risk by 0.59% to 679 points.

Wall Street today is "nine". He is not moved by the good balances. March 1 is the date that hangs over the investors' neck like a guillotine. If that day is not an agreement on tariffs between the United States and China, markets will suffer badly and global economic activity will decline. There is no reason to explain how such a scenario can affect Argentina and its bonds.

The stock exchange meanwhile began the day of euphoria. He thought he could reverse the last few falls that helped the banks and the energy sector. It was thus that S & P Merval of the leading shares at. 11.30 went up almost 2%, but from there a fall began. which made them -0.21%. After the coup, caution came and began a slow recovery with some lowering, which allowed him to finish the wheel with a 0.98% increase, but with data that did not favor it: the last few minutes were a sharp fall.

At 4:43, the stock market was 1.47% higher. In any case, the business volume was modest: pesos 486 million.

The banks, which were almost the entire wheel up, turned around by the measure that took the center and ended up in a negative area or with small inclines. Banco Macro closed with a 0.44% increase, but Frances, nearly 2% above, closed 0.39% below. The best performance was Galicia (+ 1.75%).

The highlights were Pampa Energía (+ 6.22%) followed by Transportadora Gas del Sur (+ 5.07%) and Central Puerto (+ 3.71%).

Argentine ADRs – Stocks of Stocks Listed on Wall Street – had a positive day. Despegar rose 5.04% and Transportadora Gas del Sur, 2.70%.

In the next round, it will be known whether it follows the upward trend of the dollar. It is likely that the central office does not have to buy foreign currency and that stock markets remain cautious.

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