The Rosario stock exchange expected Argentina to increase its exports of soybeans to China in the 2018/19 campaign.
According to data from the company, with a soybean production that would reach 50 million tons, the transfer of the prayer would amount to 14 million tons, doubles the amount of the last year. And the rest, between 36 and 38 million tons, would go to the factories installed in Gran Rosario, the the world's largest agricultural poleto be processed as flour or oil.
mainly, arises from the attractive price of the prayer for trade war between the United States and China and no stimulus to treat the part as a by-product Since February 2019, all products of the soybean complex will have the same retention (23%) and will then gradually decline until they reach 18% in December. Previously, there was a 3% change to stimulate the industry before the changes introduced by Macri in August.
However The previous week, China went back to buying soy from the US after the 90-day truce agreed within the framework of the G20 summit in Argentina. This was confirmed by the same American president, Donald Trump, who said China buys "large quantities" of American soybeans. According to Reuters, at least 500,000 tons were reported, but it is said that they could be up to 2 million tons.
Prior to this new context, the Directorate for Economic Studies of the same entity Rosario Clarín Rural highlighted a first gesture. In order to consolidate and reduce trade tensions, the soybean market will tend to normalize"As they explained, each of the players would return to the previous schemes of the commercial war, and Argentina might export smaller quantities prioritizing its own oil industry to produce more flour and oil.
Anyway, besides this approach, the price difference still lasts. On Friday, the theoretical FAS for exports was USD 242.9 per. Ton, and the theoretical FAS for the industry was $ 227.1 ($ 8,597) per. Ton.
It should be noted that Soybean meal is the most important export product for Argentina. According to INDEC data, in 2017, 30.3 million tons were sent abroad and reached $ 9,300 million. And soybean oil (including both refined and raw) occupied third place on the export platform last year, with 4.9 million. Tons, which generated foreign currency for DKK 3,725 million. US $.
This year it is certain these figures fall because only 32 million tons of the oilseed were produced by the strong drought who suffered the damp pampa in the middle of summer. And at the moment, companies had to import 5 million tons of soybean to comply with the commitments made.
This war became very important for the region because the US is the largest producer and exporter of soybeans, and China is the largest buyer of this grain worldwide. With the 25% duty imposed by the Asian giant on the Yankee exports, the value of the North American soybeans fell.
Accordingly, The North American country treats more soy than normal and creates more competition in flour and oils all over the world.