The bilateral red with Brazil was cut half in the last year, a new report from Ecolatina while clarifying that in the last month of 2018, a surplus in the commercial exchange of goods with Brazil reached $ 260 million, the first since 2014"And the letter adds: "This was the result of a strong export process and a new collapse of imports".
"In this way, the year closed with a reduction of bilateral red in the order of 52 percentwhich goes from around -8,200 million dollars in 2017 to -3,900 million in 2018, explained by an increase in exports of 17 percent and a decline in imports of -15 percent, "says the report on the issue of time adding:" But as In the rest of the variables in the Argentinean economy, the dynamics were not homogeneous throughout the year, so it is worth remembering how this deficit reduction was achieved ".
So, The activity was evaluated in Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 2018 and the outlook for 2019. "In the first quarter of 2018, local activity was markedly strong, and the exchange rate continued to be appreciated so foreign currency purchasing power was high," he stressed, continuing: "In this context, bilateral exchanges repeated the dynamics at the end of 2017" .
In this respect, it was clarified that "the imports jumped super-significantly to exports" and that "the deficit worsened, from $ -1.7 million in the first quarter of 2017 to $ 2 million in 2018". Ecolatina stated in the second quarter that "the product of the exchange jump plus a local activity that began to show signs of deterioration, the imports stagnated".
"For that matter, the Brazilian economy began to strengthen its growth, and despite truckers' strike experienced by the neighboring country, the deficit in the bilateral exchange was contracted during the period, specifically the same country of $ -2 million. In April-June 2017 to – 1,700 million in 2018, "reads the document published this Wednesday.
When analyzing the third quarter, it was indicated that the upturn in the bilateral accounts was highlighted. "Despite the fact that the Brazilian economy was characterized by its choice of uncertainty, the gains in foreign exchange competitiveness and the recession in the local economy resulted in a collapse of imports and a significant increase in exports," he added. in this context, the balance sheet was balanced in September and accumulated a deficit of less than $ 400 million in the quarter, a saving of 83 percent compared to the red in the same period of 2017. "
As for the end of 2018, the "favorable" trends were highlighted, highlighted in the Ecolatinas report. "For example, the Brazilian economy left its choice uncertainty and slightly better its march, and despite the nominal appreciation of the quarter, the dollar remained in a competitive zone." Finally, domestic demand continued as a result of the high interest rates. As a result, the quarterly balance was close to reaching a $ 200 million surplus, which represents a remarkable improvement over the last quarter of 2017, product again by an import crash and a recovery of the sale, "reads the writing.
Finally, the document refers to the prospects for the current year. Looking forward to 2019, "the dynamics will be more like the second half of 2018 than the first half, product of a growing Brazil (…), a Real that will remain stable in nominal terms (…) and a Argentine economy, which remains anomalous with an unvalued dollar. "" In this context, we project that this year will close a bilateral exchange close to the equilibrium and thus be the lowest since 2014, "concludes the Ecolatina analysis.