If the election was today, Mauricio Macri would surpass Cristina Kirchner by 7 points and would defeat it in a possible second round by 8 points, 47% against 39%. The president will, however, lose voting Sergio Massa: The leader of Front Renovador would win by 4 points, 43% against 39%.
This is evident from the latest study Isonomía, the voting firm with which the government works most, which was received last week at Casa Rosada's headquarters and which it agreed Infobae.
The news is that in addition to the election scenario in any competition between the main references -Macri, the former president, Massa or María Eugenia Vidal – the respondents estimated that inflation, poverty, the economy and the situation in the country In general, they were much better under Kirchner administration.
In the case of inflation, which this year will end at about 50%, the highest in recent years, the sample shows it 67% of respondents thought they were more controlled in the Kirchner administration, against only 15% who believe that the management of Cambiemos has more control. With poverty, perception is similar: 55% better in the previous administration compared to 21% of this administration. Almost identical numbers in the case of the "personal economic situation", 57% against 21%.
On the contrary, in the fight against drug trafficking and "the functioning of the institutions in the country," they consulted Macri's management more. In the first category, 58% responded that it was better with Cambiemos and only 18% with the previous administration.
With regard to the overall evaluation of both efforts, Macri and the former president both have negative numbers: 61% against 37% positive for the head of state and 52% against 45% in the case of Cristina Kirchner.
For example, there are other variables that account for the impact of the current crisis's economic crisis. That is the case with inflation. The number of Argentines who believe that the Macri government will not be able to control inflation rose significantly in the last year, according to the Isonomía survey: it rose to 65%. In early 2016, in the first months of the administration of Cambiemos, it was only 35%.
In that sense, the percentage of respondents who believe that the measures taken by Macri in recent times are due to the fact that the K inheritance apparently fell: 48% versus 64% of the beginning of change management .
In the electoral field, the situation for Macri is beneficial to the perception of its management. If the election was today, the president would get 34% in the first round against 27% of Cristina and 20% of the leader of Frente Renovador. In the second round, Macri beats the former president but loses with Massa.
In this sense, PJ works in a broad consensus to gather the majority of the leaders. The possible nomination of Cristina Kirchner is still the main issue. And what worries peronism most.
For Cambio, the election scenario is much more drinkable if the candidate was María Eugenia VidalBeyond that, the Buenos Aires governor rejected in his last public appearances that were not in his plans to run for the presidency.
If Vidal was a candidate, she would outperform Cristina Kirchner by 14 points: 40% against 26%. The governor is the leader with the best picture. It has a 59% positive and only a 33% negative. Macri, on the other hand, is 57% negative and 41% positive. Another novelty is that the figure off Roberto Lavagnawho flirt with any presidential candidate next to the senator Miguel Ángel Pichetto, maintaining a good image: 46% positive and 24% negative, although it has a somewhat high ignorance, as opposed to a good deal of management: 19%.
In the province of Buenos Aires, the election scenario is more complex for Macri in a fight against Cristina: the former president wins by 6 points, 34% against 28%.
In the competition for governor, the panorama of macrismo is more encouraging. Vidal gets almost 20 points to Verónica Magario if the proponent of La Matanza was a candidate for Unidad Ciudadana. 43% versus 26%. In Buenos Aires area there is no other round.
Another of the new data, according to the Isonomía study, is a possible candidacy Carolina Stanley for the bourgeois governor. In that case, the scenario looks much tighter. The Minister of Social Development, who sounds like a potential candidate for Vice President of Macri, leads Martín Insaurralde, Mayor of Lomas de Zamora, accepted candidate for FPV. This is almost technical: 27% versus 25%.