Unlike the presidential election next year, Argentina's policy is seen in a disjunctive, rarely seen. According to various measurements, many people who are preoccupied with the crack are willing to vote for an alternative. But when they name the third variant in the preferences palette, the enthusiasm is diluted. This trend is confirmed in a new national survey as he agreed bugle. It is from consultant Gustavo Córdoba & Asociados.
The work contains a study of 1,200 cases throughout the country and it is presented with a margin of error of +/- 2.83%. The questions were collected between 18 and 21 December. Gustavo Córdoba is a consultant who did most of his work in the province that matches his surname. He worked for the local government and also for peronists from other provinces. In recent weeks, the version had emerged that would join Sergio Massa, but the consultant refused this newspaper.
In November, the monthly work done by the author surprised us because it was one of those who put Cristina Kirchner higher. In its December poll, although holding the former president of Mauricio Macri in the first round and even the option scenarios, the most striking part of the survey could be the deepening of the knee saturationbut still without a candidate to exploit it.
The last measurement includes a 27 page reports and starts with a number of data that has been considered for more than a year. Thus, it coincides with other studies that show a slight decline in economic expectations. Those who believe that within one year the country will be "worse" fall from 68.4% to 65.5% while those considering it will be "better" rising from 23.5% to 31%.
However The President's picture falls again: The positive goes from 42.3% to 36.9% and the negative, from 54.6% to 59.9%. Cristina's picture also worsensand maybe this is the first of the indications – least in Gustavo Córdoba's work – Exhaustion with Kirchnerism and Change: The former president has 54.3% negative and 43.8% positive.
But when it comes to the leaders of the Federal PJ, Massa also sees how his image falls – he looks with 64.1% negative and 25.2% positive. There is only one rebound of Salta Juan Manuel Urtubeybut still with a high level of ignorance or people who will not comment on it: between both it exceeds 24%.
From the middle of the report, Gustavo Córdoba introduces the election problems. With general questions, some originals; and others very specific. The first conclusion? "One of the most interesting axes is to verify the tendency to change a government or to provide continuity. 55% of Argentines say they will vote for a change in 2019 while 30% say they will vote to give continuity to the Mauricio Macri government. Among those voting for change are the key motives for a change in economic direction and for living better. Among the continuists, it is important to give it another chance and so that populism does not return. "
Then, the willingness of those consulted to select an alternative is controlled. "Do you want to vote for President of a room that is not Cambiemos or Kirchner?"asks the opinion poll. 45.7% say yes. "This is, in our estimation, the measure of disillusionment with the Argentines regarding his current political representation. Almost half of the Argentines say they could vote for an option other than those that are current in 2019. "
The study later returns to the topic of saturation: "The election context has still not been resolved, but we can verify that trends are now defined more for rejection than for political or ideological acceptance ". In this sense, there are more people who manifest themselves as "anticambiemose" (52.5%) than "anti-peronistas" (41.4%).
Again on the most concrete election numbers, in this case, in the vote on space, it appears the contrast with the third variant. Although in low respect to November, between Unidad Ciudadana and Cambiemos, the majority continue to participate: 64.9 points (33.5% for K and 31.4% for pro government). Federal peronism is third, but only 12.8%. Although the PJ dialogue in the previous measurement did not reach 7 points, it is still far from the positions above.
When asked directly by the candidate, Cristina remains over Macri. The others? Urtubey exceeds just under two digits (10.4%) and Mass, 5 points (5.2%). Other studies, on the other hand, are given to the head of the Front Renovador over the governor of Salta, but always with a small number. The rest of the varieties for the crack (economist José Luis Espert, the radical Ricardo Alfonsín, Alfredo Olmedo or Néstor Pitrola) vary between 1 and 5 points.
This paradox in the search for a "third candidate" and the little acceptance that the variants have for now is what promotes the insistence of some peronists – and also socialists, as the governor of Santa Fe, Miguel Lifschitz – push and consensus, like former finance minister Roberto Lavagna.