Growth in the global economy increases demand for oil, gas and even coal. And after three years of stagnation, greenhouse gas emissions increase again. What makes even more difficult to achieve the goals of the Paris agreement, Capgemini warns.
The lights are red. Despite an increase in price per barrel of almost 100% since January 2016, Global demand for oil increased 1.6% in 2017significantly more than the average annual increase of 1% over the past decade. For gas, it is worse: Global demand increased by 3%.
China is solely responsible for almost 30% of the increase. But in Europe, after a decline between 2010 and 2014, demand for gas rises: + 6.5% 2016, + 5% in 2017. Even though it is so deteriorated, its demand is expected to rise by 1% in 2017 worldwide, reversing the trend observed over the previous two years. The increase is mainly due to demand in Asia, driven by the increase in electricity production from coal.
consequence: After three years of stagnation, greenhouse gas emissions will increase again, up 1.4% 2017 and reaches record level 32.5 gigatons. Here are some of the results from the new edition of the Global Observatory of Energy Markets Capgemini.
"These growth rates can be explained by global economic growth, which increases global energy demand, coupled with population growth and living standards in a number of countries. price increases did not dampen this growth in demand for energy" Colette Lewiner Analysis, Energy & Tools Senior Adviser at Capgemini.
Climate goals are more difficult to reach
As a result, the already fragile objectives of the Paris Agreement of 2015, which will keep the global temperature rise below 2 degrees by 2050, even harder to achieve. "I'm not very optimistic about this, warns Colette Lewiner. Even when the participating countries' commitments by 2015 came to a total temperature rise of 3 degrees, which would have very harmful consequences. I do not look good, in the current economic context, how governments will be able to endure their commitments to limit global warming to 1.5 ° C in 2050. "
"The measures taken by the European Union to achieve a higher carbon price are largely insufficient. A price of 20 euros per ton is not enough. It should reach around 55 euros per ton.
We know that US President Donald Trump has decided to withdraw from the Paris agreement on climate, which weakens global efforts to combat global warming. However, in 2017, energy-related greenhouse gas emissions continued to decline in the US, but slower than before.
"At present, renewable energy subsidies, which are often regional, are not reduced, Point Colette Lewiner. I think after all, The consumption of cars will go down, and that the shale gas continues to replace coal. It is therefore not certain that US greenhouse gas emissions will increase, but according to the Paris agreement, the United States promised a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28%. 2025 compared to 2005. It is likely to be very far, now that the US economy is running at full speed. "
Even in Europe, climate targets are threatened. The European Union has planned to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions by 20% in 2020 compared to 1990. A goal that can still be achieved. but The decline of 43% 2030 and 60% in 2040 seems difficult to reach, whereas data published by the European Commission shows that emissions of emission allowances increased by 1.8% in 2017, the first increase of seven years. "This shows that the measures taken by the European Union to achieve a higher carbon price are largely insufficient. A price of 20 euros per ton is not enough. It would amount to around 55 euros per tonne ", argues Colette Lewiner.
China, the second largest energy consume in the world and the largest greenhouse gas emissions, also sees its emissions increase, but it has not abandoned the Paris agreement. It actively develops renewable energy sources – it installed 53 GW photovoltaic capacity by 2017, almost half of the new solar installations in the world. And its Blue Sky policy aims at reducing the share of coal and increasing it by gas.
"But there is the rest of the world. India, for example, still consumes a lot of coal, and will see its population exceed China. In many African countries, where there are still many areas without lighting, the needs and priorities are different, and we can not blame them. But it helps to threaten climate goals. "