Thursday , May 13 2021

Researchers go back big sea heating results | earth



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Scripps Pier after sunset in La Jolla, California. Picture via Hayne Palmour IV / San Diego Union-Tribune / US Angeles Times.http: //www.latimes.com/science/sciencenow/la-sci-sn-oceans-heat-error-20181114-story.html

This is Good News. It is less certain today that the ocean's ocean is 60% warmer than we thought (although they may still be so hot). As reported in Los Angeles Times Today (November 14, 2018), researchers with UC San Diego Scripp's Department of Oceanography and Princeton University have returned a widely reported scientific result – based on a paper published in Nature last month – shows that the sea of ​​the earth was heated dramatically faster than previously thought as a result of climate change.

October 31 paper in Nature stated that the oceans had warmed 60% more than the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) proposed. On November 6th, mathematician Nic Lewis wrote his criticism of the paper on Judith Curry's blog. Both Lewis and Curry are critics of the scientific consensus that global warming is ongoing and human-induced.

In his November 6 blog post, Lewis pointed to shortcomings in October 31st. The authors of the October 31 paper now say that they have redone their calculations, and although they think the ocean is still likely to be warmer than the estimation used by the IPCC, they agree that they are "miffed" the assortment of likelihood. They can no longer support the previous statement about a heat increase that is 60% greater than stated. They now say there is one greater choice of probability, between 10% and 70%, as other studies have already found.

A correction has been provided Nature.

The Los Angeles Times reported that one of the co-author of the paper – Ralph Keeling at Scripp's Institution of Oceanography – "took full sign" and thanked Lewis for warning him of the mistake. Keeling told the Los Angeles Times:

When we confronted with his insight, it became immediately clear that there was a question there. We are grateful to have it pointed out quickly so that we could quickly correct it.

Meanwhile, the Twitter verses have today expected those in a situation where a widely reported and dramatic climate score has to go back. Many make comments like this:

But cooler heads on Twitter and elsewhere in the media also weigh in and point out – as it has been necessary to point out time after time – that science is not a "source of fact". Science is a process. Part of the reason researchers publish are so that other researchers can find errors in their work so that the errors can be corrected.

All researchers know this. The Los Angeles Times explained this as follows:

While papers are peer-reviewed before being published, new findings must always be reproduced before they receive wide-ranging approval throughout the scientific community …

Times quoted Gerald Meehl, climate researcher at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado, saying:

How the process works. Each paper that comes out is not collision resistant or unavoidable. If it does not appear under review, review the results.

Bottom line: An error has been found in the paper on October 31, 2018, which was published in Nature – shows an increase of sea heat 60% greater than estimated by the IPCC. The authors have acknowledged the error and a correction has been sent to Nature.

October 31, paper in nature: Quantification of the warming of the sea from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition

November 6 blog post by Nic Lewis: A major issue with Resplandy et al. ocean heat absorbing paper

Deborah Byrd


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