Thursday , January 28 2021

Coletazos of CEP: the issue of credibility affecting Piñera

One thing that's no less is enough to remember that for former President Michelle Bachelet her hit was at the waterline, the deep protrusion she could never restore and irremediably destroyed her leadership. When the Caval case broke out, it generated direct effects on his figure, diminished his credibility and the confidence that the public opinion had in him aspects that had been part of the support of his gold season in the polls. Circumstances and scenarios are of course different, but in the autumn, Piñera has complex elements, such as The campaign's promise of "better times", which became a boomerang, despite official figures, is the perception of a citizen and business is that these have not arrived, added to the irreconcilable political-communications management of La Moneda after Camilo Catrillana's crimes that shook the palace political foundation.

It was not an absolute surprise, but it was also not well received. The latest study by the Center for Public Studies (CEP) showed that only 42 percent trust President Sebastián Piñera, and 50 percent simply do not trust him. Although they have never been their strong point, a generalized drop in soft attributes places the president in an unpleasant position, one that is not irreversible, but it depends a lot on whether La Moneda makes the right decisions to leave the well where it lies.

One thing that's no less is enough to remember that for former President Michelle Bachelet her hit was at the waterline, the deep protrusion she could never restore and irremediably destroyed her leadership. When the Caval case broke out, it had a direct impact on the bachelor's number, the reduced credibility and the confidence that the public opinion had in her, and that they had participated in the support of her gold season in the polls.

The circumstances and scenarios are of course different, but this fall, Piñera's life has complex elements for the president. The promise of the "better times" campaign was a boomerang, because in spite of official figures, citizens and industry are of the opinion that they have not arrived and that the election offer was diluted to regain the time the country had lost to the Bachelet administration, which was added to it irreconcilable political communication management by La Moneda after Camilo Catrillana's crime that shook the political foundation of the palace. Not for nothing, the November Cadem survey showed a drop of 13 points in the image of Deputy Minister Andrés Chadwick, the government's main man, and CEP placed him among the 10 signs with the worst evaluation of the national political world.

The current 50 percent who do not trust Piñera in CEP coincide with the figures published by the Cadem study during this first year's mandate. In March, just installed in the palace, the President had a 60 percent confidence in the studies published by Roberto Iziksons company: in April it fell to 55%, in June to 53%, July and August reached 50 %, to continue in this margin the following months.

There is a point where the ruling party agrees: Piñera has never stood out for its soft attributes in front of citizenship, but its strength goes through promises, goals and fulfillment.

For the political analyst from Chile, Axel Callis, the question of confidence expressed in the polls would not be directly related to the President's person, but rather with the distrust that would have been generated through what is considered to be the unfulfilled promises. "They have never had much trust or proximity, it's more a pragmatic relationship (between the president and the citizens) what is now an experience he said he would do and he does not," he said.

Callis goes a little further, and in addition to qualifying this year as a distrust situation, the current administration placed in a scenario that qualifies as uncommon: "When everything starts to fail at the same time", compared to how they fall all institutions within in the context of discredit.

For the Dean of Central University University, Marco Moreno, the fall in Piñera's confidence has been related to the sounds that would exist between government projects, government capacity and system control. "Logically, the forecast for results related to certain capabilities and purposes of the government, low capabilities and very ambitious purposes give a poor forecast of the results. The greater the capacity of forecasts, the greater the credibility of the government. And in politics, the credibility is almost everything. "

The Director of the Institute of Freedom, Aldo Cassinelli, expressed a completely different view of who the low presented in the soft attributes should not be a focus where the CEO should focus his efforts. "The population positively considers the so-called hard attributes, such as government and government (…) taking the Jungle / GOPE command out of the conflict zone, the more actions against immigrants, show the deductions of control over the economy their best face," said he.

Side effects

The complex figures obtained by Piñera in the CEP concern the protection design of the presidential election, which was carried out from the first day of La Moneda and was prepared by the President's Confederation in Apoquindo 3000. What they wanted to avoid postponing it more than necessary almost protect it from itself, minimize libretto exits, complicating it that all conflicts and problems ran out of the President's speech and that the sector ministers were those who exercised the role of fuses.

During the first Piper administration, one of the biggest mistakes detected afterwards was the exaggerated appearance of the head of state in the discussion of almost all the problems in the public debate, a move based on the well-known fear of Piñera. "He is not only president, he is also all ministers," they reminded to the right.

Despite this design, in these nine months of management, there have been complex episodes, such as the determination to mention, despite the fact that his most intimate circle put all the downsides on the table, his brother Pablo Piñera as ambassador to Argentina, who brought a wave of questions that concluded that not only the decision went back but also triggered serious differences within the ruling coalition.

Another episode was the miscalculation of the transfer of Mauricio Rojas from his role as speech adviser to the Minister of Culture, which opened the flank of human rights for the time being for the government.

For the director of the advertising college of the University Diego Portales, Cristián Leporati, the low confidence indices are based on this design: "The government in its first months missed the communication strategy in the sense that the President was not exposed much, it was very hidden in La Moneda, and It meant that those who voted for him felt very far away because he had no physical presence, he had no communication or direct contact. "

Leporati added that this situation is reversible, but it will depend on how much Piñera rises from its political capital and a greater presence in the population. "Confidence is an asset, it's a daily job, it's hard to earn it and a little losing it. If you keep 4 percent growth but unemployment grows, people will believe it's a bluff."

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